UBS warns El Niño risk could replace demand as the primary d
文 / 小金
2026-08-11 14:50:02
来源:亚金网
UBS warns El Niño risk could replace demand as the primary driver for agricultural commodities. UBS cites forecasts that the current El Niño has an 81% chance of reaching strong or very-strong intensity by year-end and a 97% probability of persisting into next year. If El Niño strengthens, key producing regions could see more extreme rainfall, drought or temperature swings, raising supply-side uncertainty. UBS flags potential upside for agricultural commodity prices as weather reasserts dominance over the supply-demand balance.
