Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference in 10 minutes.
新闻速递 小金 06月18日 02:30 4
Analysts said the Fed inserted new language in its rate-decision statement noting productivity growth and capital investment remain strong. The wording mirrors Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on an AI investment boom; Warsh and some in the Trump camp argue AI-related investment could, over time, reduce inflationary pressures.
新闻速递 小金 06月18日 02:20 5
【美联储声明新措辞与沃什对AI投资繁荣的关注相呼应】金十数据6月18日讯，分析师评美联储利率决议：美联储在最新声明中加入了一项新的经济表述，用于描述当前经济状况。声明指出：生产率增长与资本投资依然保持强劲。这一变化与美联储主席沃什对人工智能（AI）投资繁荣的强调相呼应。他及部分特朗普阵营人士认为，AI相关投资热潮未来可能带来通胀压力下降。
摩根大通全球固收负责人米歇尔：美联储告诉我们，我们尚未达到中性利率。
Prime Minister Magyar said Hungary will remove its fuel price cap.
匈牙利总理毛焦尔：匈牙利将取消燃料价格上限。
Fed dot plot for 2026: 1 participant expects three hikes (March: 0), 5 expect two hikes (March: 0), 3 expect one hike (March: 0), 8 expect rates unchanged (March: 7), 1 expects one cut (March: 7), 0 expect two cuts (March: 2), 0 expect three cuts (March: 2), 0 expect four cuts (March: 1). Overall, supporters of 2026 rate increases rose to 9 participants — including one who favors an aggressive 75bp tightening — while supporters of cuts fell to 1.
在美联储官员暗示下一步可能加息之后，美国国债收益率走高。10年期美国国债收益率现报4.465%，对短期利率预期更为敏感的2年期国债收益率报4.138%。
Fed statement removed the practice of publishing individual FOMC voting records.
新闻速递 小金 06月18日 02:20 6
金十提示：美联储声明中取消了公布票委具体投票情况的惯例。
摩根大通全球固收负责人米歇尔：没想到一半的人会预测加息。
TIMIRAOS on the Fed decision: the dot plot shows a clear hawkish tilt — 9 of 18 officials expect at least one hike this year, six expect multiple hikes and only one expects cuts. One participant (likely Fed chair KEVIN WARSH) did not submit an SEP. The policy statement was rewritten end-to-end and notably shortened. Communication framework has shifted materially, which could prompt markets to reprice the interest-rate path.
【美联储传声筒：美联储明显鹰派 政策声明大改】金十数据6月18日讯，“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos评美联储利率决议：本次美联储点阵图显示出明显的鹰派倾向。在18名官员中，有9人预计今年至少会加息一次，其中6人甚至预计将出现多次加息。相比之下，仅有1名官员预计今年会降息；此外，还有1名参与者（推测为美联储主席沃什）未提交经济预测摘要（SEP）。与此同时，美联储政策声明从头到尾进行了全面修订，文本长度明显缩短。整体来看，本次会议的沟通框架发生显著变化，市场对利率路径的预期或将因此被重新调整。
JP Morgan global head of fixed income Michelle said the FOMC's stance is leaning hawkish.
摩根大通全球固收负责人米歇尔：美联储委员会的态度偏向鹰派。
新闻速递 小金 06月18日 02:10 6
Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said he was not surprised that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot plot.
前美联储副主席克拉里达：对美联储主席沃什没有提交点阵图并不感到意外。
FOMC median unemployment projections: 4.3% for end-2026, 4.3% for end-2027 and 4.2% for end-2028; March medians were 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%.
美联储FOMC经济预期：2026年至2028年底失业率预期中值分别为4.3%、4.3%、4.2%。（3月预期分别为4.4%、4.3%、4.2%）
The Fed dot plot covered 19 officials; 18 submitted projections. Among those 18, 1 projects a cumulative 75 bps increase in 2026, 5 project 50 bps, 3 project 25 bps, 8 project unchanged rates, and 1 projects a cumulative 25 bps cut.
扫一扫，关注公众号
扫一扫，下载亚金通
欢迎咨询广告投放
您正在访问亚洲外汇网，本站所提供的内容均遵守中华人民共和国香港特别行政区法律法规。您正在访问亚洲外汇网，本站所提供的内容均遵守中华人民共和国香港特别行政区法律法规。
